The Night Watchman

With the WC kicking off in less than a week, it’s that time of the season when you are all no doubt scrupulously analysing stats and performances in an attempt to win the illustrious prize of…12 months FTP membership. Having won a prize in all but one of the WC fantasy competitions we’ve had thus far, I felt that I may as well repay the game by sharing some of my thoughts on selecting your WC fantasy side for this season.

I’m not pretending I’m some kind of God at fantasy here, either. I’ve had more than my fair share of luck. But there has been a small method to the madness nonetheless, and I’ve had to have done something right to get the results I have.

1. Analyse the pitch draw.

Firstly, analyse the pitch draw. Is it worth blowing all your money on top batsman Roy Turnham with England playing on two crumbling pitches and one sticky pitch in the group stages alone? Pretty big risk for, most likely, not much reward. Do you cash in on the exceptional skills of India’s Drsadvata Kuruvilla? With 3 batting pitches, again, this is very risky. To save you the hassle of scouting through each team’s pitch draw, here are the five pitches that each team will be playing on in the group stages of the World Cup.

England – Uneven, slow, crumbling, crumbling, sticky

New Zealand – Uneven, sticky, green, hard, flat

Australia – dry, flat, uneven, green, hard

India – uneven, hard, slow, flat, hard

Pakistan – sticky, dry, uneven, crumbling, flat

Zimbabwe – sticky, green, crumbling, crumbling, hard

Sri Lanka – uneven, slow, sticky, sticky, hard

Netherlands – sticky, green, green, flat, green

South Africa – sticky, flat, slow, green, crumbling

West Indies – Sticky, hard, green, uneven, green

Bangladesh – flat, green, uneven, hard, flat

Bermuda – sticky, uneven, slow, sticky, sticky

UAE – uneven, green, slow, crumbling, slow

Ireland – Uneven, dry, hard, green, flat

Scotland – Uneven, flat, green, green, green

Kenya – dry, flat, green, flat, crumbling

Canada – flat, sticky, hard, crumbling, flat

USA – Uneven. Uneven, sticky, crumbling, slow

First observations:

• Stray away from selecting more than one English batsman - look to their bowlers instead
• A couple of the top Indian batsmen may be money well spent for your side.
• Looking to pick up a Dutch medium pacer for cheap might be smart - I’d suggest Tjalling Janssen or maybe Thomas van der Laan
• Picking a Bangladeshi batsman might be smart
• Bermuda’s, USA’s and UAE’s pitches are all favourable to bowling, stray away from selecting their batsmen - again, look to their bowlers

Look for other, similar patterns and hints in the pitch draw, as you’ll also likely be able to figure out the types of players who’ll play most, and more games equals more chance of points.

2. Busts

A “bust” is a player who fails to make expectations or, in this case, is not worth the money you are asked to spend to include them in your side. Let’s look at the three who I feel are most likely to fill this category.

Drsadvata Kuruvilla:

Team: IND

Sorry Bob, but with an average of $10,000 allowed per player you select, $16,363 is just too much to spend on this player. The slow pitch is the only pitch where Kuruvilla can realistically be expected to succeed, and being a finger spinner with just 19 wickets from 19 ODIs, it’s still going to take a fair degree of luck for Kuruvilla to succeed in terms of wickets taken. There is no doubt in my mind that those with the hopes of winning this season’s fantasy competition should shy away from selecting Kuruvilla, as tempting as his exceptional summary may be.

Roy Turnham

Team: ENG

With the pitch draw England have been dealt, Turnham is another who may just command too much money in return for his services. Sure England will still expect him to play well despite the unfriendly conditions, but at $14,188, he may not quite give you the return you’re looking for in a big money player. Boasting an impressive average of 44.47, Turnham is not as a definitive selection in the bust category as Kuruvilla might be, but I’d recommend straying away from his selection if you can help it.

Percy McShane

Team: SAF

From the limited number of posts in the WC Fantasy thread already, it seems McShane is a player that everyone wants to spend big money on. The pitch draw offers him a chance, but he has never really demolished batting lineups consistently in the manner of a Guthrie and at $14,704 he is not worth the money for mine. 35 wickets in 30 ODIs isn’t quite good enough, though at 23 McPain is yet to peak and, once full of power, he will be lethal. Stray away from him now, though.

3. Value players

Looking now to three players who, in my opinion, will be good value for money and allow you to spend bigger money elsewhere.

Vaibhav Gupta

Team: IND

A number of batting pitches for India and the legendary experienced, powerful Gupta at just $7,772 is likely to exploit these pitches nicely for your fantasy team. An ODI average of over 40, Gupta should be able to put in at least one performance that will bring you a large amount of points for very little money, and with the way the competition works this year, he’s a must-have.

Govil Sandip

Team: BAN

Sandip has been arguably Bangladesh’s most consistent performer over the past two seasons. He is extremely cheap at just $5,962 and will allow you to spend big money elsewhere. He is not a real wicket taker, however he has conceded just 254 runs from 409 balls in ODIs and carries an average of 63.50 to boot. For those who like to pack their team with a few stars and then look for cheaper players to make up the deficit, Sandip has to be a real consideration.

Charles Sacristani

Team: ZIM
Despite his wage of $10,224 being over the $10k average per player, it’s too hard to go past picking Sacristani after looking at the Zimbabwean pitch draw. It’s almost impossible to ignore the two sticky and one crumbling pitch that Sacristani will no doubt get a chance to weave his magic on somewhere along the line. 94 wickets in 41 ODIs, ignore him at your peril.

Those are my basic feelings on WC Fantasy squad selection, remember I have just as much power to predict the future as you do and a lot of this is guesswork, so any information you take into account, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck with selecting your teams, and enjoy the tournament.